Poll shows close Senate race despite incumbent on trial

October 09, 2008

Poll results show Democratic candidate Mark Begich with a 4-point lead over Stevens, the incumbent. (Jason Kohler/KTUU-TV)

by Angela Blanchard
Thursday, October 9, 2008

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- The latest poll numbers show Sen. Ted Stevens' legal troubles are not preventing him from running a close race for re-election.

Ivan Moore Research surveyed 500 Alaska voters statewide last weekend.

The results show Democratic candidate Mark Begich with a 4-point lead over Stevens, the incumbent.

Pollster Ivan Moore says poll numbers have fluctuated greatly since Stevens' indictment, but more than half of voters are still giving Stevens a positive rating.

"The poll that we did a couple of weeks before the indictment came down," Moore said. "The poll that we did showed Begich 8 points in the lead, and now the last three polls have been 3 points, 2 points, and 4 points to Begich," Moore said.

"Alaska is the only place where you can get indicted and actually make up ground in a race."

In the U.S. House race, Democrat Ethan Berkowitz again had a lead over incumbent Republican Don Young.

Moore's poll shows Berkowitz with a 9-point advantage, up from 5 points just two weeks ago.

"Don's problem in that race is that now six polls in a row he's had a negative rating above 50 percent, and he's got to push that down into the mid-40s or below to have a chance at winning," Moore said. "You know, you just can't win when more than half the people don't like you."

Moore added that Young cannot be counted out, because the congressman has pulled through in tough races before.

Moore specifically cited both of Young's wins over candidate John Devens in two closely contested races in the early 1990s.

Contact Angela Blanchard at ablanchard@ktuu.com

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