Rain Showers

The flood warning on the Kuskokwim River near Aniak has been extended until 10 p.m. Tuesday. An ice jam has formed about 10 miles down river near Crow Village. Water levels will continue to rise until the ice jam releases. As for the rest of the state, conditions remain fairly consistent on May 8. A weakening area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska continues to create rain showers in Southeast. Convection from two different lows wills keep the showers going through this evening but they are expected to end by Wednesday.

Anchorage missed a record high yesterday by only 2 degrees.  Sunshine and low 50s return today before clouds increase overnight and a shower or two tries to develop this weekend. Southeast will remain damp all day, especially from Juneau southward.  Highs will top out in the upper 40s and low 50s.  Rain showers will push into the northern Panhandle, but this rain activity is expected to be spottier and lighter.  The strong winds that have whipped around the southern Panhandle will ease to less than 20 mph late this morning.  The west coast will stay chilly.  A weak northerly flow at the surface is being supported by stronger flow aloft advecting cold air through the Bering Sea and right along the coast.  Highs in Bethel and Nome will remain below freezing.  Teens are in the forecast for the Slope.

A large upper level ridge has settled over the state providing sunshine and warming temperatures to all of the Interior and Southcentral regions.  Highs will range from the upper 60s around Fairbanks to the 50s around PWS and coastal Kenai Peninsula. Behind the ridge is a weak upper trough and surface disturbance.  It is nearly stationary over the Aleutian Islands.  A front is swinging through the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island this morning.  Along and behind it, rain showers have increased.  Rain is likely from Bristol Bay to Kodiak west into the Aleutians.  As a result, highs will stay in the 40s for most areas.

A broad stacked low pressure system south of Kodiak Island is responsible for gray skies and areas of persistent rain over southern Alaska. Some of the heavier rain has been in PWS and the eastern Kenai.  Gusty winds in excess of 50 mph through channeled terrain have accompanied the wet weather.  Rain will continue today with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Rain and rain showers will continue in SE, also.  Look for highs in the 50s. ...

There are several synoptic features to consider today.  Weak surface low pressure will persist in the northern and eastern Gulf of Alaska, which means expect more shower activity.  Rain showers may mix in with snow this afternoon in SE with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible. Snow showers will be light and scattered for the most part in Southcentral.  Even still, 1 to 3 inches is possible along Cook Inlet and in PWS.  Gray skies will stick around for the southern coastal regions. Elsewhere, light morning snow showers are likely for the eastern half of the Interior.  Denali Park has reported snow this morning.  Fairbanks and areas to the east may pick up a light accumulation before showers taper to flurries tonight.  Highs will be chilly---look for a range from 5 below to 10 above.

Get used to hearing a lot about an upper level trough. In the big picture, it is our primary weather feature all the way into next week. What does an amplified upper trough mean for us?  It means unsettled, chilly, and wet weather for many parts of the state. If you look outside this morning in Anchorage or anywhere in the Cook Inlet region, you're thinking, "What's the big deal?  It looks gorgeous. "  In fact, most of Southcentral is shaping up to be partly to mostly sunny today.  But it will also be cool.  Highs will to out in the 40s, a good 5 to 10 degrees below average for the beginning of May. Anchorage and the Valley are seeing very low dewpoints, thanks to cold dry air advecting into the region since yesterday evening.  That is why it is clear and also why it is cold---lows hit the teens over east Anchorage and parts of the Mat Su. Snow showers will linger along the Alcan through the afternoon with snow ending elsewhere over the eastern mainland later this morning.  Highs will reach the 30s. 40s and rain showers are back for the SE Panhandle due to a weak surface disturbance moving out of the Gulf into the northern Panhandle this morning.  Moisture is being drawn over SE ahead of the low circulation.

We are now onto the sixth day in a row of sunshine in Anchorage.  A few scrappy clouds are expected today and clouds will increase by tomorrow evening and remain into next week, so if you haven't been able to enjoy the sun earlier in the week, today is your day. Mostly cloudy skies and scattered to isolated rain showers persist over the SE Panhandle thanks to weak flow wrapping in around a British Columbia low.  Around the southern periphery...

We wouldn't know it by looking outside in Anchorage, with cool crisp sunshine yesterday, but some parts of the state continue to experience unusual winter-like weather.  Southwest is once again starting off the day with light snow.  Light snow and flurries and very cold temperatures are gripping the Slope and Northwest Alaska, including Kotzebue and Nome. Glenallen and the rest of the Copper River Basin have had periods of snow this morning. Snow has extended to the Eagle and the Canadian border.

A weak area of low pressure has moved into the lower Kuskokwim and is making it's march to the east.  It is also continuing to weaken along the way.  Clouds are scattered about most of the state as a result.  Since atmospheric dynamics and moisture are limited with this disturbance, snowfall is not expected to be heavy around the state. A couple of inches are possible in Southwest with light accumulations over the Interior and the rest of the West Coast.  Southcentral will see clouds increase and scattered snow showers but only light accumulations, in general, are expected.

Yet another in a long line of beautiful days is in store for us today.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies over the western half of Alaska will keep temps in the 40s inland with 20s and 30s along the Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea coasts. Southcentral will get another dose of sunshine through the afternoon.  Highs will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.  There is a slight chance of rain over the Kenai Peninsula and PWS regions. Scattered rain and snow showers are possible in Cold Bay and Unalaska.  Most of the AK Peninsula will keep with mostly cloudy skies.  Showers may extend into Kodiak, as well.

An easterly upper wave is moving over SE into Southcentral Alaska.  It is brought rain showers to PWS but, as it encounters drier air in the Cook Inlet region, it's only influence is scattered clouds.  Showers and clouds will continue throughout the day in the Panhandle, with the heavier showers over the northern half of SE. Rain has made its way back onshore over the West.  A weak upper ridge is holding together over far SW AK.  It will eat...

Emergency officials in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough are alerting residents along the Matanuska River of high, fast-moving water. Fire officials knocked on doors in the Butte Tuesday night warning of potential flooding from riverbank erosion. Borough staff met again Wednesday with residents in Sutton whose property is eroding into the river. MatSu Borough officials say the deep snowpack, warm temperatures above 70 recently, and rain showers have pumped the glacial river with water.

The primary feature on the weather map is an upper low centered just south of Seward.  This is the same upper level low that moved out of the northern Yukon at the beginning of the week and has brought moderate to heavy rainfall to the majority of the mainland. This low will sag south slightly, then stall and continue to weaken.  Ahead of it, rain is coming onshore into PWS and the SE Panhandle.  On the backside of the low, rain is ending and dry air at the mid and upper levels is trying to punch into the Inlet region.  Clouds will continue to gradually break up into the afternoon in Anchorage and the entire Cook Inlet area.  Highs will rebound into the upper 50s and low 60s. With rain and rain showers forecast today, highs will be cool in PWS and SE.  Expect upper 40s to mid 50s. Widespread sunshine is forecast elsewhere thanks to a broad upper ridge of high pressure smack-dab over the Bering Sea.  Weak, dry northerly flow aloft is suppressing cloud development for a big chunk of the state.  The Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay region, western Interior, all of the west coast, and the Arctic coast will have mostly sunny to sunny skies.  Clouds will continue to decrease over the central and eastern Interior.

Moisture riding along an upper level easterly wave is bringing rain and rain showers to the eastern mainland.  Clouds broke earlier in SE and should remain broken with dry weather there throughout the day.  However, further west in Southcentral and the eastern Interior, clouds and showers continue to march W/NW.  They will bring an end to the sunshine over the western Interior this afternoon and to Southwest this evening. As a result of the cloud cover, expect slightly cooler highs in Fairbanks, Anchorage and the Mat Su compared to yesterday.  We'll reach the low to mid 70s in and around Fairbanks, and upper 50s to near 60 in Anchorage and the Valley.

Anchorage and the Valley are benefiting from the effects of downsloping flow.  While most of the southern half of the state remains cloudy to mostly cloudy with rain showers, we have cleared beautifully this morning and already warmed into the 50s.  I did not expect as rapid and widespread of clearing, especially during the morning, but we have lucked out.  As a result, highs will push toward 60 in the Mat Su and upper 50s in the Anchorage Bowl....

A broad stacked low pressure system south of Kodiak Island is responsible for gray skies and areas of persistent rain over southern Alaska. Some of the heavier rain has been in PWS and the eastern Kenai.  Gusty winds in excess of 50 mph through channeled terrain have accompanied the wet weather.  Rain will continue today with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Rain and rain showers will continue in SE, also.  Look for highs in the 50s. ...

We tend to think of Memorial Day weekend as the first unofficial weekend of summer but we're not seeing a summery blast across much of the state.  An area of low pressure is south of the Alaska Peninsula. The jet stream is south of the state and guiding that system into the Gulf of Alaska.  With the flow of the jet going almost due east, the push from this system won't send much rain too far inland.  Coastal areas can expect to see the brunt of this rain. Mostly cloudy and scattered rain showers through the weekend for Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys and the Kenai Peninsula.

Rain showers will fall in PWS and the eastern Interior this morning then taper to widely scattered showers by the afternoon in the Interior and by evening in PWS.  These showers will swing westward over the mountains into the Cook Inlet region late this morning or afternoon.   In Anchorage and the Mat Su, a few light showers are expected this afternoon.  Showers will linger into tonight, then briefly end.  Rain chances go right back up toward morning and throughout the day tomorrow.

A large upper level ridge has settled over the state providing sunshine and warming temperatures to all of the Interior and Southcentral regions.  Highs will range from the upper 60s around Fairbanks to the 50s around PWS and coastal Kenai Peninsula. Behind the ridge is a weak upper trough and surface disturbance.  It is nearly stationary over the Aleutian Islands.  A front is swinging through the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island this morning.  Along and behind it, rain showers have increased.  Rain is likely from Bristol Bay to Kodiak west into the Aleutians.  As a result, highs will stay in the 40s for most areas.

The upper trough that brought cold and wet weather to much of the state over the last week is weakening as it moves east into Canada and the SE Panhandle.  Rain showers and cool temps associated with the trough will remain for today in SE. The big story around the state is the warm and dry air mass that is building in.  An upper ridge of high pressure is strengthening over western Alaska.  It will nudge eastward and anchor itself over the...